Put It ThroughThe 10-Test Gauntlet
Twin Check. We run your logic on a random-walk twin of the market. A fair test should find nothing there. If it does, something is peeking at the future.
Zero-Edge Null. Same number of trades, same holding times, same stops and targets, but random entries. Your idea has to beat chance by a clear margin, not just look profitable in a backtest.
Flip Test. Every buy becomes a sell. If the flipped version does as well, the logic spots that a move is coming, not which way. That is a volatility filter, not an edge.
Out-Of-Sample. Settings are chosen on one stretch of history and judged on a stretch they never saw. Whatever looked best in the past tends to fade, so the past is not where we judge.
Monte Carlo. We resample your trades 5,000 times to see the paths the same logic could have taken: the unlucky streaks, the deepest drawdowns, the worst runs in a row. One lucky order of trades cannot carry a verdict.
Kairos Trust Score. Our own timing test, scored on out-of-sample trades only: does an entry move your way before it hurts you? It weighs stop safety, how much of the move is captured, drawdown and win quality into one score out of 100. It asks whether entries come at the right moment, not just eventually.
Calmar Ratio Test. Return per unit of worst drawdown, measured three ways: on the raw trades, across all 5,000 Monte Carlo paths, and on the $500 seed. Below 1, the idea earned less than its own worst fall.
Daily Seed Test. Every account-level test starts from a $500 seed. No idea should need more than $500 at risk to show what it can do, so $500 is the baseline we measure against. Results read as multiples of the seed, not dollar amounts, so the same test reads the same way on a larger account.
Floor Test. Thousands more resampled paths on the $500 seed with a hard $255 floor. Every path that breaks the floor is counted, and that breach rate weighs heavily in the Stackable Factor rating: the more often an idea breaks the floor, the lower it rates.
The Full Quant Battery. Every run also reports a t-test and bootstrap confidence interval on the average trade, the Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio corrected for skew and fat tails, the minimum track record needed for confidence, Sortino, SQN, Ulcer index, tail ratio, skew and kurtosis, and each trade’s worst and best excursion. No verdict rests on one headline number.
Passed Historical Tests means the idea survived our tests on simulated past data. Results are hypothetical, are not a recommendation, and do not mean the idea will make money.